Daily Briefs


Photo : NIAS Europe Studies Team/ UK Government

13 July 2022, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #252

Who are the eight candidates heading towards the leader contest? | War in Ukraine: Day 139

Croatia to adopt Euro from 2023; Ireland extends all island healthcare policy to a year; The EU revised it's economic prediction for the year and the next

Who are the eight candidates heading towards the Conservative leader contest?
By Padmashree Anandhan

On 12 July, the first round of voting for choosing UK’s prime minister ended shortlisting eight contenders to go forward for the second round after getting back by 20 members of parliament. To choose the new party leader of the conservatives the selected candidates will now have to 36 or more votes to qualify for the postal vote from which the leader will be chosen. At the end of first round, Grant Shapps, Sajid Javid, and Rehman Chishti have dropped out due to short of votes.
 
Profile of the eight candidates
Kemi Badenoch, former equalities minister
On 08 June, former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch announced her decision to compete for the UK leadership. Badenoch comes from London and spent her childhood in the US and Nigeria. She was elected as Member of Parliament in 2017 and has performed different roles as part of the cabinet, which includes being the spokesperson for the economy under GLA Conservatives. Although her growth did not evolve in the government, being a former levelling up and equalities minister has stood for Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities (Cred) report, criticisms against government being oppressive on minorities, culture wars, and defended Boris Johnson on handling Brexit, and COVID-19. In her bid to the leadership, she has vowed to focus on UK’s net zero climate target, and lowering of taxes.
 
Suella Braverman, attorney-general
Suella Braverman, who comes from Indian origin and based in London is one of the strongest contenders in the list and has a long-standing specialization in public law and judicial review. She worked as the Attorney General’s Panel of Treasury Counsel where she helped the Home Office in immigration, Brexit, Parole Board problems posed by prisoners, and Ministry of Defence in issues relating to continued injuries in the battle. In terms with previous government, she is sighted as one of the loyalists and has promised to bring a “low-tax state,” cutting down energy VAT, and to bring spendings under control. Her stance on climate crisis stands firms as she believes pledging for net zero target and climate action as far-fetched aim.
 
Jeremy Hunt, former health secretary
Jeremy Hunt became the Conservative MP in 2005 for South West Surrey. Starting his role as a Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport, was first selected as Secretary of State for Health in 2012, and later served as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care in 2018. He has a record of losing close to Johnson in the previous voting rounds in the conservative party and has been criticized for “delivery style” by the party members. Hunt has pledged for lowering taxes but for businesses, raising national insurance limit and increase defence expenditure to 2.5 per cent of GDP. On the climate issue, as a foreign secretary Hunt was on the front for the UK’s climate change.

Penny Mordaunt, trade minister
Penny Mordaunt, who was a former governor at the World Bank, has held several positions in the parliament since 2014 as minister of local government, armed forces, Disabled People, Health and Work. She has also been appointed as Secretary of State for International Development, Defence and was also posted as Paymaster General to head the resilience and build UK’s defence in cyber security. Comparing the current government, Mordaunt has been a critic throughout and believes her leadership will unite the segmented Conservative party. Some of the key position held by Mordaunt will functioning as first female defence secretary. After Rishi Sunak she has the second biggest count of supporters in the party. Being positioned as an equalities minister and then shifted to trade minister, has always focused on gender issues and is a supporter of trans rights.

Rishi Sunak, former chancellor
Rishi Sunak, one of the prominent candidates amongst the competitors to replace Johnson. The reputation comes due to his impressive role in pandemic, on the other hand few party member are divided over his unpopularity in the economic side which questions his leadership of the party. He comes from a business and finance background, his political career started when he was elected as conservative member of parliament in 2015 and gradually moving up the ladder to become Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 2019, and Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2022. Unlike others, he has not mentioned on the tax cuts and perceived to be resistant towards climate action. With regards to the former leader, has worked as close member of the party until his resignation.
 
Liz Truss, foreign secretary
Liz Truss, one of the longest members of the conservative party with a record of holding positions in government since 2012. She became the party’s member for south west Norfolk in 2010 and held a range of roles in the parliament from being Secretary of State for Education and Childcare, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade, Minister for Women and Equalities, to becoming Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs. Her political career has shot at a fast pace along with forming a strong base in the party. She has focused her leadership bid on “libertarian ideals or Thatcherism,” Similar to Rishi Sunak, she did not pledge for climate commitments when she held the trade minister post.

Tom Tugendhat, foreign affairs select committee chair
Tom Tugendhat has been a well-known critic of Johnson in the party and similar to Truss became the parliament member in 2010. Although did not have a rapid development like Truss, was positioned as chair of the foreign affairs select committee in 2017. He is expected to focus on cutting fuel taxes, “victim culture, and climate emergency” as key debate points in contest for leadership.
 
Nadhim Zahawi, chancellor
Nadhim Zahawi is the last contender in the list with least political experience. He was seen as a probable replacement, due to his fast development under Johnson’s lead, first a vaccines minister, to education secretary. Of all the competitors Zahawi is expected to be the most prepared with a team to run for the leadership. He has pledged for reviewing of UK’s corporate tax policy, children education and climate change.

References
Tobi Thomas and Andrew Sparrow, "Tory leadership: candidates will need 20 MP backers to enter contest to succeed Boris Johnson – as it happened," The Guardian, 11 July 2022 
Sebastian Payne, "Who will replace Boris Johnson as UK prime minister?," ft, 07 July 2022
"The Rt Hon Suella Braverman QC MP," GOV.UK, 13 July 2022
"The Rt Hon Jeremy Hunt MP," GOV.UK, 13 July 2022
Charley Adams, "Kemi Badenoch launches bid to be Conservative leader," BBC, 10 July 2022


War in Ukraine: Day 139
By Rishma Banerjee
 
War on the Ground
On 12 July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to Poland’s deputy prime minister and minister of national defence, Mariusz Błaszczak. He thanked Poland for their continuous support to Ukraine and Ukraine’s army. Zelenskyy also said that he was certain that Poland and Ukraine’s post-war relations would develop further.
 
Zelenskyy has ordered the Prime Minister Denys Shmyal to consider establishing a mandatory examination for acquiring Ukrainian citizenship. This move comes after a petition about the same by Vitali Kapustian secured 26,586 votes, saying that an estimated 520,000 Russians had illegally immigrated to Ukraine since 2014.
 
On 12 July, Ukraine’s military reported that they had hit Russia’s forces and military equipment in Nova Kakhovka city in southern Ukraine. They used advanced HIMARS mobile artillery system supplied by Washington to carry out the long range rocket strike. The strike resulted in hundreds of munitions being detonated, the breaking out of massive fires and the death of at least seven people.
 
On the same day, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reported that the army had suppressed Russia’s attempted assault operations in Dementiivka in Kharkiv. Heavy shelling was reported in Sumy region and Sloviansk. Russia is also attempting to improve their tactical position in Bakhmut and Novopavlivka directions through systematic firings. 
 
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also said that between 24 February and 12 July, an estimated 37,470 Russian soldiers have been killed by Ukraine’s forces. An elaborate list of approximate losses endured by Russia was also released. It said that Ukrainian defenders has destroyed about 1,649 Russian tanks, 3,829 armored fighting vehicles, 838 artillery systems, 247 multiple launch rocket systems and 2,699 other vehicles and tanker trucks amongst countless other air defence systems, warplanes, helicopters, cruise missiles, and warships.
 
In Telegram post, Mykolaiv mayor, Oleksandr Sienkevych said that Russia’s rockets have hit two medical facilities and residential buildings. Reportedly, amidst heavy shelling in the region, 4 people were injured.
 
On 12 July, Kyiv Post reported about Ukraine’s Agrarian Policy and Food ministry’s announcement about Ukrainian farmers bringing in the first million tons of the new harvest. The announcement was made on 08 July and said that the harvest of grains, legumes and winter wheat has been collected from 417,300 hectares of land in the country.
 
Also on 12 July, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service’s department in the Donetsk region reported on the death toll from the Russian missile strike on an apartment building in Chasiv Yar. They said that 45 dead bodies have been pulled from the rubble so far.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 12 July, the chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, Mikhail Mizintsev, said that over 270 tonnes of humanitarian cargo has been delivered to Donetsk People’s Republic. This was done through five humanitarian operations in the region. Mizintsev, who also heads the Russian Joint Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response in Ukraine said that more than 22,000 people have been evacuated from Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) to Russia. Reportedly, 4,433 private cars also crossed into Russia from Ukraine.
 
On the same day, Mizintsev spoke about mine disposal in the DPR and LPR regions. He reported that a total of 3,856.42 hectares have been covered, including 35 buildings, 13 important facilities, two bridges and 9.64 kilometers of motorways. Allegedly, 54,690 explosive objects have been found and destroyed.
 
The head of the Kharkiv region's interim civil administration Vitaly Ganchev said that the grain exported from Kharkiv were all based on contracts. He clarified that the sale of the same had been negotiated with the farmers in a process overseen by the interim civil administration.
 
Amidst wider crackdowns on western tech companies, a court in Moscow fined US tech giant Apple for not storing personal data belonging to Russia’s citizens on Russia-based servers. The fine has been set at RUB two million. Russia has already banned Facebook and Instagram as “extremist” organizations” and blocked Twitter too.
 
On 12 July, the world’s largest toy-making company from Denmark, Lego announced that they will stop operating in Russia. The company had partnered with Inventive Retail Group which operated 81 stores on the brand's behalf, but now the collaboration will be terminated.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe 

On 12 July, EU’s Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders said that so far the EU has frozen EUR 13.8 billion worth of assets belonging to Russian oligarchs and other individuals with ties to Moscow. On 11 July, European Commissioner for Home Affairs, Ylva Johansson reported that more than three million Ukrainian refugees from Ukraine in the EU have returned to their homeland.
 
The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan spoke at a press briefing about the possibility of Iran supplying Russia with “several hundred UAVs, on an expedited timeline.” This statement comes in the background of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin’s scheduled visit to Tehran next week. Moreover, the US treasury announced that it will send an additional USD 1.7 billion in economic aid to Ukraine. This aid will be to fund “essential services”. 
 
On the same day, Germany’s government discussed their plans to improve their cyber-security defences. The decision comes after several major cyberattacks have been traced to Russian intelligence-linked hackers. The new measures will require small- and medium-sized enterprises to up their cyber resilience, and also the introduction of a central video conferencing system for the federal government.
 
On 12 July, Turkey’s defence ministry announced that a meeting between Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and the UN has been fixed for 13 July in Istanbul. The military delegations from the three countries and a delegation from the UN will be discussing about a safe and smooth export corridor for Ukraine’e grains. This comes after Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan held phone conversations with Putin and Zelenskyy.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

On 12 July, an International Olympic Committee (IOC) member, Craig Reid warned that Russia and Belarus may not be allowed to compete in the Paris 2024 Games. The governing bodies of the individual sports had been warned in February to remove the athletes from these two countries, and a decision regarding the same will be taken soon. A former vice president of the IOC, Reed said: “A decision is going to have to be taken on what happens to each of these two countries, and my guess is that the general feeling would be that they should not qualify.”
 
On the same day, Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) released a report regarding the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine. They said that since the beginning of the war, a total of a total of 5,024 have been killed and 6,520 have been injured. On 11 July, the UN announced that they will start monitoring the war in Ukraine, for violations against children, including killings, injuries, recruitment, rape and other forms of sexual violence.
 
References
Samantha Lock, “Russia-Ukraine war update: what we know on day 140 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 12 July 2022
Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defense of Poland,” President of Ukraine, 12 July 2022
Ramsha Afridi, “Zelensky Orders PM to Consider Introducing Exam for Ukrainian Citizenship,” Kyiv Post, 12 July 2022
Stefan Korshak, “Ukraine long-range rockets hit Russian ammo depot in south, massive explosions and fires,” Kyiv Post, 12 July 2022
Ukraine Army firmly suppresses enemy attempts to conduct assault operations in Kharkiv direction,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2022
About 37,470 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine – General Staff,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2022
Chasiv Yar death toll reaches 35 – Emergency Service,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2022
New Ukrainian Wheat Crop Hits 1 mln tonnes, eases spiking prices,” Kyiv Post, 12 July 2022
Russian rockets hit two medical facilities, residential buildings in Mykolaiv,” Ukrinform, 12 July 2022
 “Over 270 tonnes of humanitarian cargoes delivered to DPR, Kharkov region in past day,” TASS, 12 July 2022
Over 22,000 people evacuated from Ukraine, DPR, LPR to Russia in past day,” TASS, 12 July 2022
Over 3,800 hectares cleared of mines by Russian specialists in Donbass — defense ministry,” TASS, 12 July 2022
Russian Court Fines Apple for Breaching Data Storage Rules,” The Moscow Times, 12 July 2022
Lego to Cease Russian Operations 'Indefinitely,' 81 Stores Impacted,” The Moscow Times, 12 July 2022
Grain from Kharkov region exported to Russia based on contracts — authorities,” TASS, 12 July 2022
EU has frozen 13.8 billion euros of Russian assets over Ukraine war, official says,” Reuters, 12 July 2022
EU official unveils how many millions of Ukrainians remain in Europe, how many went home,” TASS, 11 July 2022
Putin due in Tehran as US says Iran to supply drones to Russia,” The Guardian, 12 July 2022
Germany bolsters defenses against Russian cyber threats,” Deutsche Welle, 12 July 2022
Yesim Dikmen and Michelle Nichols, “Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, U.N. to meet Wednesday on grain exports,” Reuters, 12 July 2022
Olympics-Russia, Belarus athletes may face Paris 2024 ban: IOC's Reedie,” Reuters, 12 July 2022
Ukraine: civilian casualty update 12 July 2022,” Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, 12 July 2022
UN to monitor Ukraine war for violations against children,” AP News, 12 July 2022


IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

IRELAND
Dublin extends cross-border health plan to a year
On 12 July, the Republic of Ireland extended the cross-border health scheme which was due to expire in June 2021 to another year. The scheme lets the people of Northern Ireland carry out their treatment in the Republic of Ireland. The country’s department of health has allocated EUR five million towards the Health Services Republic of Ireland Reimbursement Scheme. As per the scheme, patients from Northern Ireland can access private treatment across the border and get reimbursed from 80 to 50 per cent of their medical fees. The common treatments included in the scheme are orthopaedic surgery, cataract surgery and hernia repairs. ("Cross-border health scheme extended for year," BBC, 12 July 2022)

FRANCE
Abdeslam and 19 others rulings changed to permanent after failing to file appeals
On 12 July, the only remaining attacker from the 2015 Paris attacks, 32-year-old Salah Abdeslam has not appealed his life sentence. Abdeslam was the only surviving member of the 10 attackers who blew themselves up in an act of terrorism. Affiliated with the Islamic State group cell in Syria and Iraq, the group murdered 130 people in 2015 at the Bataclan concert hall and various other locations. The ruling has gained permanent status and there won't be an appeal trial anymore. Although Abdeslam pleaded not to put him in a life sentence, his request was ignored due to his clear involvement in the attack. He was later arrested four months after the attack in 2015 by the police force. ("Paris 2015 attacks verdict 'permanent' after Abdeslam, all 19 others decline to file appeals," France24, 12 July 2022)

REGIONAL
Euro falling to parity with the dollar for the first time in 20 years
On 12 July, the euro became equal to the dollar for the first time in twenty years. The last time the euro was valued less than the dollar was at the time of its nascent period. The euro has lost more than ten per cent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of 2022. The unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine has led an economic slump in the Eurozone nations. Supplies from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline have been cut off for 10 days of maintenance. This has further impacted the economy of the countries that depended on Russian gas amidst fear that the suspension would be permanent. The rising energy prices, cost of living crisis, and inflation will intensify further by the euro reaching parity with the dollar. (Johanna Treeck, "Euro falls to parity against the dollar, adding to inflation woes," POLITICO, 12 July 2022; Jorge Liboreiro, "Euro reaches parity with dollar for the first time in 20 years," euronews, 12 July 2022)

Croatia gets green light to switch to euro in 2023
On 12 July, Croatia was given final approval for changing its currency from kunas to the euro. Croatia would be the 20th country to adopt the euro after becoming a member of the EU less than a decade ago. The country will switch to the euro from 01 January 2023. Strict conditions were met by Croatia to fulfil the requirements to join the eurozone. Croatia joins the euro club amidst high inflation and the euro falling to parity with the dollar. The people of Croatia are also apprehensive of a hike in prices due to the sudden change in currencies. ("Croatia gets final approval to adopt euro in 2023," Deutsche Welle, 12 July 2022)

EU concerns over inflation, revise the economic forecast
On 11 July, the EU finance ministers of the Eurozone member nations prioritized tackling inflation. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 11 years on July 21. Moreover, the European Commission revised its economic forecast due to issues like the Ukraine war, supply chain disruption and surging inflation. EU’s economic prediction had foreseen four per cent growth but the current expectation is 2.7 per cent. Annual inflation was forcasted to hit 3.5 per cent but it has reached up to 6.1 per cent, with the monthly inflation of June hitting a record 8.6 per cent. The increased food prices and cost of living crisis have also been prime factors for upward inflation.. ("EU slashes economic forecast, vows to fight inflation," Deutsche Welle, 11 July 2022)

 

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